Pedometrics Forums 10 PM challenges Can we develop communicable measures of uncertainty?

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    Alexandre Wadoux

    (proposed by Gerard Heuvelink)
    One of the things that pedometricians can be proud of is that as a rule we always quantify the accuracy of our products, typically by probability distributions, although sometimes limited to an RMSE or concordance correlation. Among others, we quantify uncertainties because it tells users of our products whether a product is accurate enough for the intended use. But somehow this is where it goes wrong: many users do not seem to care or are not able to comprehend our measures of uncertainty. We have not made a good job of showing why quantified uncertainty is important and how it can be used. For instance, it may be essential for decision making and risk analyses. If we can communicate uncertainty better then we might be more successful in getting users to appreciate and use our measures of uncertainty.

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